Fort Irwin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS65 KVEF 311125
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
425 AM PDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The Extreme Heat Warning continues today for sections of
the Mojave Desert as high pressure maintains hot temperatures.
Afterwards, tropical moisture will bring cloud cover, increasing
chances for precipitation, and relatively cooler temperatures
starting Sunday through the middle of next week. The greatest
precipitation amounts appear to be across northwestern Arizona on
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.

High pressure over the southwestern United States will maintain
above average temperatures across the forecast area. Today`s morning
low temperatures will are be notably warmer as cloud cover inhibits
radiational cooling at some locations - current temperatures are 5
to 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. Afternoon highs are
also expected to be a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday as
heights aloft rise. Daily maximum temperature records and warm
minimum temperature records are in jeopardy at area climate sites.
See the CLIMATE section below for more details. The Extreme Heat
Warning seems to be in good shape and will continue until 11 PM
PDT/MST today. Moderate (Level 2) to Major (Level 3) HeatRisk is
once again widespread across the Mojave Desert. This level of heat
that is dangerous to those without effective cooling or adequate
hydration.

Aside from heat, quiet weather is expected for today. Cloud cover
will increase overnight as moisture from Tropical Storm Alvin is
pulled into the low pressure centered over Baja California.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Saturday.

Tropical Storm Alvin will continue to push northward toward the Baja
California coast as it weakens. Expect Alvin to weaken back into a
Tropical Depression with any given NHC update due to strong shear
and dry air intrusion. Regardless, the moisture associated with
former TS Alvin will get sucked into the upper-level flow of an area
of low pressure in the southeastern Pacific (referred to as the
"Baja Low" in previous forecast discussions) as it moves inland on
Sunday. The combined moisture surge from these two systems will
result in PWATs across the eastern half of our forecast area to 250-
300 percent of normal. We`re just now entering the high-resolution
domain, and with that comes an increase in confidence regarding
impacts from these systems. PoPs have increased to at least "slight"
areawide (20-40%), though the greatest precipitation chances remain
confined to areas south and east of Interstate 15, with Mohave
County experiencing the bulk of the precipitation potential (50-70%)
Sunday into Sunday night. This moisture flux will help drop
temperatures across the area between 8 and 12 degrees between
Saturday and Sunday.

Chances of precipitation linger into Monday across our eastern zones
as the vorticity maxima associated with the Baja low push eastward
across northern Arizona toward the Four Corners. Meanwhile, a trough
originating from the Pacific Northwest will dig part of the way down
the west coast before pinching off a closed low over NorCal late
Sunday into Monday. This low will glide along the coast before
moving inland on Tuesday with a similar trajectory as the Baja low.
These dynamics will tap into remnant moisture over the area,
resulting in persistent slight PoPs across Mohave, eastern Lincoln,
and eastern Clark counties through Wednesday and will further drop
temperatures by 6 to 8 degrees between Sunday and Monday.

A dry northwest flow sets up over the region mid-to-late week as an
area of high pressure grows in the east-central Pacific as well as
the southeastern Pacific. Heights will rise over the Desert
Southwest, resulting in temperatures rebounding back to above-normal
heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Quiet
weather is expected this morning, with mid to high level clouds
passing by and light winds favoring a southwesterly direction.
Around noon, winds should shift to easterly, with speeds remaining
below 10 knots about 90 percent of the time, before shifting back to
southwesterly around sunset with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. VFR
conditions through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Southwesterly winds are
expected to increase this afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 25 knots in
most areas. Cloud cover could get low enough to obscure the highest
peaks for short periods. Breezy conditions will persist tonight, and
stronger south to southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 knots are
expected Sunday. Lower ceilings and rain chances will begin to move
in from the south during the day Sunday, reaching the I-40 corridor
after noon.
&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SAT, MAY 31
               Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      104(2024)*
Bishop          99(1950)*
Needles        116(1910)
Daggett        106(2001)
Kingman        100(1938)*
Desert Rock    100(2012)*
Death Valley   118(2002)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SAT, MAY 31
               Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      82(1997)*
Bishop         60(2013)*
Needles        84(2004)
Daggett        78(1972)
Kingman        71(1997)*
Desert Rock    77(1997)
Death Valley   91(2001)*


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Morgan

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